Opening bell

July 25, 2018 - 3:15 pm

Welcome! Welcome! To our second opening of the WHOSDAQ!

You may remember our Quarterback Stock Price game from three years ago when the Buffalo Bills had a three-headed quarterback battle featuring EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel, and Tyrod Taylor.

The concept is simple… you can spend as much (fictional) money as you’re comfortable with. You can buy 1,000 shares of Josh Allen, or 500 Allen and 400 of A.J. McCarron. How closely should you monitor your portfolio? Well that’s up to you. The concept is that the prices exist to reflect the likelihood of the opening day starter.

Why should you pay attention to this? Last time we did it, owner and now President of the Bills, Kim Pegula, asked WGR's Sal Capaccio about the day's activity while on the sideline at training camp.

EVERYONE IS GOING TO BE TALKING WHOSDAQ!

One interesting thing is that Bills fans, and the national temperature on these three guys, isn’t the same.

According to The Action Network, the odds that each quarterback starts the opener are:

  • AJ McCarron (-145)
  • Josh Allen (+160)
  • Nathan Peterman (+700)

If you have an account with this book, you can place bets on the money line and you’ll get the returns listed.  I googled how to translate this into a % chance out of 100* and here's what we get:

  • McCarron - $60
  • Allen - $30
  • Peterman - $10

*I had to scrape them down a bit because the odds add up to 110 which would represent the extra ten percent that is the VIG (Pay no attention to this if you dont care)) and here’s what we have, roughly (don't @ me, it is close enough and we're just having fun) based on return, for those three.

If you OWN a share when the player is announced as the starter, you cash it for $100. So there’s your betting line according to the actual oddsmakers or, VEGAS, as you might say. You buy a $60 share of McCarron, then you cash that when he wins the job and make $40 per-share. If McCarron is named the starter, but you have 35 shares of Josh Allen at $22 dollars a share, that becomes zero dollars and you lose that entire investment. Got it? Diversify if you want. Trade on a daily basis if you'd like. Put it all on Peterman, wait for him to look good against future gas station attendants in a preseason game, and then sell his stock after the inevitable bump. The concept is simple... is the exercise itself unreasonably complicated? Maybe, but for the love of football this is the second time we're doing this in three years so what else are we going to do.

I posted a Twitter poll asking Bills fans, presumably who will start, and the answers came in, as percentages that can easily be put into dollar values:

  • McCarron - $45
  • Peterman - $33
  • Allen - $22

The whole thing is a lot closer, and Peterman is MUCH more popular as a predicted starter among Bills fans, and that’s worth exploring. The prices would be smoothed a bit based on my followers expectations?

The national media likely mocks Peterman, while locally we hear the Bills sing his praises. The national expectation may be that the young guy has a shot to get in, but around here we know the Bills and just how faithful they are to “THE PROCESS”.

So which is right?

I've decided... The Twitter poll. If you want to use the national gambling odds as a guide on what is good or bad value... by all means do it.

Opening prices are set. 

Invest wisely.

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Writer's notes:

- Yes the picture is a guy in a Dow Jones hat... we didn't have access to a very good NASDAQ one. Plus, it's a New Era hat so... shout out!

- This whole concept existed in real life at a website called WSEX.com, no... it wasn't a sex site, it was the World Sports Exchange, and it was awesome. You'd buy shares in future bets, games, props, anything. You could bet New England to win the Super Bowl at $67, then wait till the playoffs where tehy're the 1 seed, and sell every share for $87. You're out before the outcome. Pats fall behind 14-0 in a game? Live betting exists now, but it was so much easier when considering buying SHARES at $23, knowing they could come back, or you could sell once they tied it. Brad Riter knew more about this site, and was the one to kinda show it to me. It was great.

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